Modelling Team
John Stover
Robert Glaubius
Carel Pretorius
Yu Teng
Guy Mahiane
Eline Korenromp
Katharine Kripke
Matthew Hamilton
Avenir Health
Focus countries/region
Sub-Saharan Africa

Goals is a deterministic compartmental HIV epidemic simulation model that estimates new HIV infections arising from behaviors of distinct risk groups (female sex workers and their male clients, men and women with non-regular partners, faithful couples, men who have sex with men and people who inject drugs). The model includes prevention interventions (both bio-medical and behavioral) and treatment. The model tracks people living with HIV (PLHIV) over time by CD4 count and ART status. Disease progression parameters that determine rates of CD4 decline and mortality of those not on ART are specified by CD4 count. For those on ART, mortality is dependent on age, sex, CD4 count at treatment initiation and duration on treatment.


Stover J, Glaubius R, Teng Y, Kelly S, Brown T, Hallett TB, et al. (2021) Modeling the epidemiological impact of the UNAIDS 2025 targets to end AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. PLoS Med 18(10): e1003831. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003831