Africa landscape

Publications & reports

Publication list

A quantitative assessment of the consistency of projections from five mathematical models of the HIV epidemic in South Africa: a model comparison study

Haroon Moolla, Andrew Phillips, Debra ten Brink, Edinah Mudimu, John Stover, Loveleen Bansi‑Matharu, Rowan Martin‑Hughes, Nisaa Wulan, Valentina Cambiano, Jennifer Smith, Anna Bershteyn, Gesine Meyer‑Rath, Lise Jamieson and Leigh F. Johnson

BMC Public Health (2023) 

Potential cost-effectiveness of community availability of tenofovir, lamivudine, and dolutegravir for HIV prevention and treatment in east, central, southern, and west Africa: a modelling analysis

Andrew N Phillips, Loveleen Bansi-Matharu, Maryam Shahmanesh, James R Hargreaves, Jennifer Smith, Paul Revill, Euphemia Sibanda, Peter Ehrenkranz, Kenly Sikwese, Alison Rodger, Jens Lundgren, Charles Gilks, Catherine Godfrey, Frances Cowan, Valentina Cambiano.

Lancet Global Health 2023

An agent‑based model of binge drinking, inequitable gender norms and their contribution to HIV transmission, with application to South Africa

Leigh F. Johnson, Mmamapudi Kubjane, Alex de Voux, Julius Ohrnberger and Mpho Tlali

BMC Infectious Diseases 2023

Predicted effects of introduction of long-acting injectable cabotegravir pre-exposure prophylaxis in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study

Jennifer Smith, Loveleen Bansi-Matharu, Valentina Cambiano, Dobromir Dimitrov, Anna Bershteyn, David van de Vijver, Katharine Kripke, Paul Revill, Marie-Claude Boily, Gesine Meyer-Rath, Isaac Taramusi, Jens D Lundgren, Joep J van Oosterhout, Daniel Kuritzkes, Robin Schaefer, Mark Siedner, Jonathan Schapiro, Sinead Delany-Moretlwe, Raphael J Landovitz, Charles Flexner, Michael Jordan, Francois Venter, Mopo Radebe, David Ripin, Sarah Jenkins, Danielle Resar, Carolyn Amole, Danielle Resar, Maryam Shahmanesh, Ravindra K. Gupta, Elliot Raizes, Cheryl Johnson, Seth Inzaule, Robert Shafer, Mitchell Warren, Sarah Stansfield, Roger Paredes, Andrew Phillips, on behalf of the HIV Modelling Consortium

Lancet HIV 2023


Cost-effectiveness of voluntary medical male circumcision for HIV prevention across sub-Saharan Africa: results from five independent models

Loveleen Bansi-Matharu, Edinah Mudimu, Rowan Martin-Hughes, Matt Hamilton, Leigh Johnson, Debra ten Brink, John Stover, Gesine Meyer-Rath, Sherrie L Kelly, Lise Jamieson, Valentina Cambiano, Andreas Jahn, Prof Frances M Cowan, Collin Mangenah, Webster Mavhu, Thato Chidarikire, Carlos Toledo, Paul Revill, Maaya Sundaram, Karin Hatzold, Aisha Yansaneh, Tsitsi Apollo, Thoko Kalua, Owen Mugurungi, Valerian Kiggundu, Shufang Zhang, Rose Nyirenda, Prof Andrew Phillips, Katharine Kripke, Anna Bershteyn

Lancet Global Health 2022

Transmission reduction, health benefits, and upper-bound costs of interventions to improve retention on antiretroviral therapy: a combined analysis of three mathematical models.

Anna Bershteyn, Lise Jamieson, Hae-Young Kim, Ingrida Platais, Masabho P. Milali, Edinah Mudimu, Debra ten Brink, Rowan Martin-Hughes, Sherrie L. Kelly, Andrew N. Phillips, Loveleen Bansi-Matharu, Valentina Cambiano, Paul Revill, Gesine Meyer-Rath, Brooke E. Nichols.

Lancet Global Health  2022

Cost-effectiveness of easy-access, risk-informed oral pre-exposure prophylaxis in HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study

HIV Modelling Consortium

Lancet HIV 2022

Perspectives on the use of modelling and economic analysis to guide HIV programmes in sub-Saharan Africa

The Modelling to Inform HIV Programmes in sub-Saharan Africa (MIHPSA) Working Group

Lancet HIV 2022

The effect of HIV programmes in South Africa on national HIV incidence trends, 2000-2019

Leigh F. Johnson, Gesine Meyer-Rath, Rob E. Dorrington, Adrian
Puren, Thapelo Seathlodi, Khangelani Zuma, Ali Feizzadeh.

JAIDS Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes; DOI: 10.1097/QAI.0000000000002927

Risks and benefits of restarting HIV prevention activities in the midst of on-going COVID-19 epidemics

John Stover ,Sherrie L. Kelly, Edinah Mudimu, Dylan Green, Tyler Smith, Isaac Taramusi, Loveleen Bansi-Matharu, Rowan Martin-Hughes, Andrew N. Phillips, Anna Bershteyn

PLoS One 2021

The potential role of long-acting injectable cabotegravir– rilpivirine in the treatment of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling analysis

Andrew N Phillips, Loveleen Bansi-Matharu, Valentina Cambiano, Peter Ehrenkranz, Celicia Serenata, Francois Venter, Sarah Pett, Charles Flexner, Andreas Jahn, Paul Revill, Geoff P Garnett

Lancet Global Health 2021; 9: e620–27

Modelled evaluation of modfications in viral load monitoring in the context of sub-Saharan Africa: modelling to inform WHO guidelines

Andrew Phillips, Loveleen Bansi-Matharu, Valentina Cambiano, HIV Modelling Consortium

Potential effects of disruption to HIV programmes in sub-Saharan Africa caused by COVID-19: results from multiple mathematical models

HIV Modelling Consortium

Lancet HIV  2020 

The impact, cost and cost-effectiveness of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis in sub-Saharan Africa: a scoping review of modelling contributions and way forward

Kelsey Case, Gabriela Gomez, Timothy Hallett

J Int AIDS Soc. 2019 Sep;22(9):e25390. doi: 10.1002/jia2.25390.

The influence of constraints on the efficient allocation of resources for HIV prevention

Isaac Stopard, Jessica McGillen, Katharina Hauck, Timothy Hallett

AIDS. 2019 Jun 1;33(7):1241-1246. doi: 10.1097/QAD.0000000000002158.

The importance of local epidemic conditions in monitoring progress towards HIV epidemic control in Kenya: a modelling study

Sarah‐Jane Anderson, Geoffrey Garnett, Joanne Enstone, Timothy Hallett

J Int AIDS Soc. 2018 Nov; 21(11): e25203.

Optimal timing of HIV home-based counselling and testing rounds in Western Kenya

Jack Olney, Jeffrey Eaton, Paula Braitstein, Joseph Hogan, Timothy Hallett

J Int AIDS Soc. 2018 Jun;21(6):e25142. doi: 10.1002/jia2.25142.

Targeting the right interventions to the right people and places: the role of geospatial analysis in HIV program planning

Gesine Meyer-Rath, Jessica McGillen, Diego Cuadros, Timothy Hallett, Samir Bhatt, Njeri Wabiri, Frank Tanser, Thomas Rehle

AIDS. 2018 May 15; 32(8): 957–963.

Frontloading HIV financing maximizes the achievable impact of HIV prevention

Sarah‐Jane Anderson, Peter Ghys, Regina Ombam, Timothy Hallett

J Int AIDS Soc. 2018 Mar; 21(3): e25087.

National responses to global health targets: exploring policy transfer in the context of the UNAIDS ‘90–90–90’ treatment targets in Ghana and Uganda

Ellen McRobie, Fred Matovu, Aisha Nanyiti, Justice Nonvignon, Daniel Nana Yaw Abankwah, Kelsey Case, Timothy Hallett, Johanna Hanefeld, Lesong Conteh

Health Policy Plan. 2018 Jan; 33(1): 17–33.