Africa landscape

Publications & reports

Publication list

HIV diagnosis and treatment status in individuals dying from HIV in Zimbabwe, Malawi, and South Africa: A model comparison analysis

Loveleen Bansi-Matharu, Daniel T. Citron, Rowan Martin-Hughes,
Haroon Moolla, John Stover, Michael Pickles, Tara Mangal , Jenny Smith,
Owen Mugurungi, Mmatlou Simeon Kubyana , Isaac Taramusi,
Valentina Cambiano, Amon Mpofu, Debra ten Brink, Edinah Mudimu,
Tsitsi Apollo, Anna Bershteyn, Linley Chewere, Dobromir Dimitrov,
Stephen Macheso, Leigh F. Johnson , Andrew Phillips

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Sustaining progress in HIV care in Africa with a transition to enabled self-care: a modelling study

Andrew N Phillips, Kenly Sikwese, Valentina Cambiano, Loveleen Bansi-Matharu, Jennifer Smith, Euphemia Sibanda, Cheryl Johnson, Brooke E Nichols, Edinah Mudimu, Frances M Cowan, Paul Revill

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Cost-Effectiveness of Differentiated Service Delivery for HIV Treatment: A Combined Mathematical Modeling Study of Four African Settings

Shiying You , Hae-Young Kim , Andrew N Phillips , Daniel T Citron , David Kaftan , Ingrida Platais , Loveleen Bansi-Matharu , Valentina Cambiano , Brooke E Nichols , Youngji Jo , Ronald S Braithwaite , Edinah Mudimu , Anna Bershteyn

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Effects of reductions in US foreign assistance on HIV, tuberculosis, family planning, and maternal and child health: a modelling study

John Stover, Emily Sonneveldt, Yvonne Tam, Katherine C Horton, Andrew N Phillips, Jennifer Smith, ∙ Rowan Martin-Hughes,  ∙ Debra ten Brink,  ∙ Daniel T Citron, ∙ Hae-Young Kim, Adam Akullian, Edinah Mudimu, ∙ Michael Pickles,  Anna Bershteyn, Jessica Williamson, Gesine Meyer-Rath, Lise Jamieson, Elizabeth A Sully, Julia N White, Alexis Heaton, Rebecca A Clark, Hannah Tong, Alexandra S Richards, C Finn McQuaid, Rein M G J Houben, Richard G White, Dobromir Dimitrov, David Kaftan

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Evaluation of antiretroviral regimen switching options in adults with HIV with sustained viral load non-suppression on dolutegravir, lamivudine, and tenofovir in eastern, central, southern, and western Africa: a modelling study.

Andrew N Phillips, Loveleen Bansi-Matharu, Joep J van Oosterhout, Emily Hyle, David van de Vijver, Roger Kouyos, Steven Y Hong, Helen Chun, Elliot Raizes, Rami Kantor, Michael R Jordan, Marco Vitoria, Nathan Ford, Owen Mugurungi, Tsitsi Apollo, Pugie Chimberengwa, Graeme Meintjes, Mark Siedner, Jens Lundgren, Jonathan Schapiro, Charles Flexner, Tom Loosli, Valentina Cambiano, Jennifer Smith, Ruisi Xia, Suzanne McCluskey, Sandrine Mewoabi, Alexandra Calmy, Serge Paul Eholie, Paul Revill.

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Clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of the WHO recommended advanced HIV disease package of care.

Emily P Hyle, Thulani Maphosa, Ajay Rangaraj, Mary Feser, Geoffrey C Singini, Prakriti Shrestha, Amir Shroufi, Krishna P Reddy, Eddie Matiya, Rosalia Dambe, Virginia R Talbot, Rachel Chamanga, C Robert Horsburgh, Milton C Weinstein, Rose K Nyirenda, Nathan Ford, Appolinaire Tiam, Andrew Phillips, Kenneth A. Freedberg.

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Estimated impact of long-acting injectable PrEP in South Africa: a model comparison analysis.

Sarah E. Stansfield, Mia Moore, Lise Jamieson, Gesine Meyer-Rath, Leigh F. Johnson, David Kaftan, Anna Bershteyn, Jennifer Smith, Valentina Cambiano, Loveleen Bansi-Matharu, Andrew Phillips, Jesse Heitner, Ruanne V. Barnabas, Brett Hanscom, Deborah J. Donnell, Marie-Claude Boily and Dobromir Dimitrov

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Potential impact and cost-effectiveness of long-acting injectable lenacapavir plus cabotegravir as HIV treatment in Africa.

Andrew Phillips, Jennifer Smith, Loveleen Bansi-Matharu, Kenly Sikwese, Cissy Kityo, Charles Flexner, Marco Vitoria, Nathan Ford, Meg Doherty, Zack Panos, David Ripin, Matthew Hickey, Diane Havlir, Monica Gandhi, Michael Reid & Paul Revill.

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Rapid development of an online tracker to communicate the human impact of abruptly halting PEPFAR support

Brooke E. Nichols, Elvin H. Geng, Eric Moakley, Andrew N. Phillips, Jeffrey W. Imai-Eaton,
John Stover, Edinah Mudimu and Anna Grimsrud

Journal of the International AIDS Society 2025, 28:e26433

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By executive order: The likely deadly consequences associated with a 90-day pause in PEPFAR funding

Khai Hoan Tram, Jirair Ratevosian and Chris Beyrer

Journal of the International AIDS Society 2025, 28:e26431

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Cost‑effectiveness of screening and treating alcohol use and depression among people living with HIV in Zimbabwe: a mathematical modeling study

Jasmine I‑Shin Su, Yao‑rui Yeo, Mellesia Jeetoo, Neo K. Morojele, Joel M. Francis, Sheela Shenoi and
R. Scott Braithwaite

BMC Medicine (2024) 22:481

 

 

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Exploratory analysis of the potential impact of violence on HIV among female sex workers in Mombasa, Kenya: a mathematical modelling study

Michael Pickles, Elisa Mountain, Parinita Bhattacharjee, Japheth Kioko, Janet Musimbi, Helgar Musyoki, Peter Gichangi, James Stannah, Mathieu Maheu-Giroux, Marissa Becker & Marie-Claude Boily

BMC Medicine volume 22, Article number: 468 (2024) 

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From conceptualising to modelling structural determinants and interventions in HIV transmission dynamics models: a scoping review and methodological framework for evidence-based analyses

James Stannah, Jorge Luis Flores Anato, Michael Pickles, Joseph Larmarange, Kate M. Mitchell, Adelina Artenie, Kostyantyn Dumchev, Serge Niangoran, Lucy Platt, Fern Terris-Prestholt, Aditya Singh, Jack Stone, Peter Vickerman, Andrew Phillips, Leigh Johnson, Mathieu Maheu-Giroux & Marie-Claude Boily

BMC Medicine volume 22, Article number: 404 (2024) 

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Assessing the effect of health system resources on HIV and tuberculosis programmes in Malawi: a modelling study

Tara D Mangal, Sakshi Mohan, Timothy Colbourn, Joseph H Collins, Mathew Graham, Andreas Jahn, Eva Janoušková, Ines Li Lin,
Robert Manning Smith, Emmanuel Mnjowe, Margherita Molaro, Tisungane E Mwenyenkulu, Dominic Nkhoma, Bingling She, Asif Tamuri, Paul Revill, Andrew N Phillips, Joseph Mfutso-Bengo, Timothy B Hallett

Lancet Global Health

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A quantitative assessment of the consistency of projections from five mathematical models of the HIV epidemic in South Africa: a model comparison study

Haroon Moolla, Andrew Phillips, Debra ten Brink, Edinah Mudimu, John Stover, Loveleen Bansi‑Matharu, Rowan Martin‑Hughes, Nisaa Wulan, Valentina Cambiano, Jennifer Smith, Anna Bershteyn, Gesine Meyer‑Rath, Lise Jamieson and Leigh F. Johnson

BMC Public Health (2023) 
 

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Potential cost-effectiveness of community availability of tenofovir, lamivudine, and dolutegravir for HIV prevention and treatment in east, central, southern, and west Africa: a modelling analysis

Andrew N Phillips, Loveleen Bansi-Matharu, Maryam Shahmanesh, James R Hargreaves, Jennifer Smith, Paul Revill, Euphemia Sibanda, Peter Ehrenkranz, Kenly Sikwese, Alison Rodger, Jens Lundgren, Charles Gilks, Catherine Godfrey, Frances Cowan, Valentina Cambiano.

Lancet Global Health 2023

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An agent‑based model of binge drinking, inequitable gender norms and their contribution to HIV transmission, with application to South Africa

Leigh F. Johnson, Mmamapudi Kubjane, Alex de Voux, Julius Ohrnberger and Mpho Tlali

BMC Infectious Diseases 2023

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Predicted effects of introduction of long-acting injectable cabotegravir pre-exposure prophylaxis in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study

Jennifer Smith, Loveleen Bansi-Matharu, Valentina Cambiano, Dobromir Dimitrov, Anna Bershteyn, David van de Vijver, Katharine Kripke, Paul Revill, Marie-Claude Boily, Gesine Meyer-Rath, Isaac Taramusi, Jens D Lundgren, Joep J van Oosterhout, Daniel Kuritzkes, Robin Schaefer, Mark Siedner, Jonathan Schapiro, Sinead Delany-Moretlwe, Raphael J Landovitz, Charles Flexner, Michael Jordan, Francois Venter, Mopo Radebe, David Ripin, Sarah Jenkins, Danielle Resar, Carolyn Amole, Danielle Resar, Maryam Shahmanesh, Ravindra K. Gupta, Elliot Raizes, Cheryl Johnson, Seth Inzaule, Robert Shafer, Mitchell Warren, Sarah Stansfield, Roger Paredes, Andrew Phillips, on behalf of the HIV Modelling Consortium

Lancet HIV 2023

 

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Cost-effectiveness of voluntary medical male circumcision for HIV prevention across sub-Saharan Africa: results from five independent models

Loveleen Bansi-Matharu, Edinah Mudimu, Rowan Martin-Hughes, Matt Hamilton, Leigh Johnson, Debra ten Brink, John Stover, Gesine Meyer-Rath, Sherrie L Kelly, Lise Jamieson, Valentina Cambiano, Andreas Jahn, Prof Frances M Cowan, Collin Mangenah, Webster Mavhu, Thato Chidarikire, Carlos Toledo, Paul Revill, Maaya Sundaram, Karin Hatzold, Aisha Yansaneh, Tsitsi Apollo, Thoko Kalua, Owen Mugurungi, Valerian Kiggundu, Shufang Zhang, Rose Nyirenda, Prof Andrew Phillips, Katharine Kripke, Anna Bershteyn

Lancet Global Health 2022

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Transmission reduction, health benefits, and upper-bound costs of interventions to improve retention on antiretroviral therapy: a combined analysis of three mathematical models.

Anna Bershteyn, Lise Jamieson, Hae-Young Kim, Ingrida Platais, Masabho P. Milali, Edinah Mudimu, Debra ten Brink, Rowan Martin-Hughes, Sherrie L. Kelly, Andrew N. Phillips, Loveleen Bansi-Matharu, Valentina Cambiano, Paul Revill, Gesine Meyer-Rath, Brooke E. Nichols.

Lancet Global Health  2022

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