Optima HIV

Modelling Team
Debra ten Brink
Rowan Martin-Hughes
Nick Scott
Burnet Institute
Focus countries/region
Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and the Pacific, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Middle East and North Africa

Optima HIV is a deterministic compartmental model that tracks the transmission of HIV among and between population groups, stratified by context-dependent age and behavioural risk. It captures biological transmission probabilities, CD4 progression and recovery, as well as injecting and sexual behavior. It dynamically tracks people at risk for HIV as well as people living with HIV as they move across clinical categories, disease states, age and risk groups. For people living with HIV, it tracks their probability of being diagnosed, ART status and whether those on treatment are virally suppressed. Optima's key feature is its ability to optimize resource allocation by combining programmatic, costing, and epidemiological data to minimize cost to meet key HIV epidemic targets, and maximize impact within a limited budget.